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Publication Title | Cruise passenger traffic to Norway – history and forecasts until 2060

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Cruise passenger traffic to Norway – history and forecasts until 2060

TØI Report 1388/2015 Author(s): Petter Dybedal, Eivind Farstad, Per-Erik Winter, Iratxe Landa-Mata Oslo 2015, 57 pages Norwegian language

The number of cruise visitors in Norway have increased from about 200,000 to almost 700,000 the last 15 years. The number of cruise ship port calls have gone up from approximately 1200 to 2000, and the number of passengers per ship has nearly doubled in the same time period. The cruise tourism in Norway is growing at about the same rate as in other cruise destination areas in Europe.

The growth rate for number of visitors has been averaging about nine per cent per year; but the growth rate has been unstable, and there are signs of stagnation in 2014 and 2015. The prognoses in the report are based on an assumption offuture reduction in annual growth rates, and are depicted in three alternatives: 0.3 percent, 2.0 per cent, and 3.5 per cent annual growth, respectively. A combination of 3.5 per cent annual growth up until 2028, and then 2.0 per cent in 2028 – 2060, yields an estimate of about two million cruise visitors in 2060, and around 3250 port calls in Norwegian cruise ports.

This report is prepared upon request by Kystverket (the Norwegian Costal Administration). The main purpose is to work out prognoses for the cruise ship traffic to Norwegian ports until 2060.

The report also contains an overview of the main actors in the cruise market, the “Norwegian cruise product” and the historical development until present day. It also discusses some challenges connected to the operating premises for the cruise sector in Norway, and the cruise operators’ criteria for choice of port-of-call and turnaround ports

Prognoses dealing with such a long time frame as in this case – is undoubtedly linked to a large degree of uncertainty. The report also includes a discussion of the underlying factors of the cruise traffic, as well as the factors that contribute to the uncertainty of the prognoses.

Historical development of the cruise ship traffic in Norway

By definition, a cruise should have at least three different port-of-calls, and not carry commercial freight. A cruise voyage can start and end in the same port (return voyage), or start and end in different ports. The Hurtigruten line (Norwegian Costal Line) and other scheduled maritime transport (such as ferries to and from Norway) are not defined as cruises, even though is often referred to as such in marketing.

The port statistics from the various ports comprise the base data for cruise traffic statistics in terms of number of passengers and port calls. Based on the port statistics, the marketing organization Cruise Norway produces annual national

Telephone: +47 22 57 38 00 E-mail: toi@toi.no I This report can be downloaded from www.toi.no

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